Michael Hyatt predicts that a 'seismic shift' in publishing is on the way, and suggests that publishers prepare to focus more on digital media in the future.
Now, I have no clue about anything in publishing, but I wouldn't be at all concerned about this. Hyatt uses the example of the music industry, but here's why he shouldn't worry.
When mp3's really began to take off, they began to hurt album sales in traditional media (i.e. CD's). The market shift wasn't as strong as many predicted, but it was there. The thing is that there is essentially no difference in sound quality between CD and mp3. I think that if vinyl had been the most popular format when mp3 first appeared, the new technology wouldn't have taken off quite as quickly (vinyl just sounds better. Don't argue).
I love books. I love the feel of the paper. I get upset as soon as the spine begins to crack. When I get a poorly bound book I despair when the pages start to fall out. I have books at home that I've read 10, 15 times. They're falling to pieces, and I love them like children.
Books are the literary equivalent of vinyl. The purists format. Sure, if Microsoft comes out tomorrow with a perfect ebook reader with a long battery life and a high resolution screen we may see a slight drop in book sales, but it'll be insignificant compared to the number of readers who prefer to feel the paper. There's no such thing as a first edition ebook. You can't get a signed copy.
The only reasons a new technology would eclipse an old one is if the new technology offered 1) an improvement in quality, or 2) an improvement in convenience. Books aren't cumbersome, and no medium can deliver the written word to your brain better than a book.
This post has no point. I hate technology, and books will never die. You can quote me on that. End of story.
I still like the feel of a book IN MY HANDS !
Posted by: Paul | December 13, 2005 at 01:45 PM